Commodia

Share this post

Forecast Update - September 2023

newsletter.commodia.com

Discover more from Commodia

Sign-up and get the state-of-the-art forecasts brought to you by top academic economists who specialize in global energy commodity market prices.
Continue reading
Sign in

Forecast Update - September 2023

Update of Brent and WTI forecasts.

Sep 5, 2023
1
Share this post

Forecast Update - September 2023

newsletter.commodia.com
Share

Dear subscribers,

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast


🟧 Forecast Update of Brent

Commodia predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will be an average of $87.27 in September 2023. We forecast an average value of $89.85 for December 2023 and $91.98 for March 2024. We expect an average price of $94.55 for September 2024 and $98.57 for September 2025.

📈 Comparison to ICE forecast

Our forecast is around 1.2% higher compared to the ICE Brent1  crude oil futures contract in September 2023. Our long-term forecast is about 15% higher one year ahead (September 2024) and 27% higher two years ahead (September 2025) compared to the ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts.


🟥 Forecast Update of WTI

Commodia predicts that the spot price of WTI crude oil will be an average of $81.74 in September. We forecast an average value of $82.26 for December 2023 and $83.75 for March 2024. We expect an average price of $86.62 for September 2024 and $90.56 for September 2025.

📈 Comparison to NYMEX forecast

Our forecast is 5% lower compared to the NYMEX WTI2 crude oil futures contract in September 2023. Our long-term forecast is about 10% higher one year ahead (September 2024) and 22% higher two years ahead (September 2025) compared to the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.


🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast(Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. The main changes to our forecast from August to September 2023 are that Global Economic Conditions and OECD inventories have put upwards pressure on crude oil prices.

This has implied that the long-term forecasts for oil prices have been revised upwards (around 6 percent for Brent, and 7 percent for WTI two years ahead).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below.

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research


Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

Loading...

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

1

ICE: The data for ICE Brent crude oil futures contract is from https://www.theice.com. The data is downloaded and updated at the beginning of each month. Linear interpolation is performed when ICE monthly observations are not available.

2

NYMEX: The data for NYMEX crude oil futures contract is from https://www.cmegroup.com. The data is downloaded and updated at the beginning of each month. Linear interpolation is performed when NYMEX monthly observations are not available.

1
Share this post

Forecast Update - September 2023

newsletter.commodia.com
Share
Comments
Top
New

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2023 Commodia
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing