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At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.
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🛢️Oil Market - September 2025 Summary
In September 2025, oil prices experienced a rebound driven by supply constraints and geopolitical developments. Brent crude rose to around $69.55 per barrel amid expectations of sanctions impacting Russian fuel exports. U.S. WTI also climbed to about $65.20 per barrel, buoyed by news of unexpected draws in U.S. crude inventories and tightening global supply.
The market remained sensitive to OPEC+ output plans and regional developments—resumed exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan and signals of increased output dampened price gains by month’s end.
🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price
In October 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $67.50 per barrel, which is 3.8% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.05. By January 2026, Commodia projects $69.56, significantly 7.1% higher than ICE’s $64.97.
In April 2026, the gap widens further, with Commodia forecasting $71.13, which is 9.9% higher than ICE’s $64.71. By October 2026, Commodia expects $73.14, a difference of 12.6% compared to ICE’s $64.97. Looking ahead to October 2027, the divergence peaks as Commodia projects $78.08, which is 19.6% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.27.
🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price
In October 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $63.98 per barrel, which is 3.3% higher than NYMEX’s forward price of $61.94. By January 2026, the divergence widens, with Commodia projecting $65.61, 7.3% higherthan NYMEX’s $61.17.
In April 2026, Commodia forecasts $67.05, which is 9.3% higher than NYMEX’s $61.37. By October 2026, the difference grows further, as Commodia expects $69.02, 13.6% above NYMEX’s $60.73. Looking ahead to October 2027, the divergence peaks: Commodia projects $73.95, while NYMEX remains at $61.76, a gap of 19.8%.
🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month
The main variables influencing Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from September is a decline in global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts.
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:
Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to September 2025.
For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research
References
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.
BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.
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Commodia Team