Forecast Update - August 2025
Update of Brent and WTI forecasts.
Dear subscribers,
At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.
Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us
And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model
You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart
🛢️Oil Market - July 2025 Summary
Oil trading in July 2025 was influenced by mounting supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, keeping Brent crudearound $70 per barrel, down from earlier in the year. WTI futures largely moved sideways, confined to a range between $60–$70 per barrel, amid investor caution
Despite a rebound from June’s lows—when Brent briefly spiked to about $80/bbl amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz fears—prices stabilized as tensions eased and risk premiums declined. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continued increasing production, such as the July 411,000 bpd output boost and an additional 548,000 bpd expected in August and September, contributing to a build-up in inventories.
🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price
In August 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $74.03 per barrel, which is 2.0% higher than ICE’s forward price of $72.56. By November 2025, the gap widens significantly, with Commodia projecting $75.76—10.5% higherthan ICE’s $68.58.
In February 2026, Commodia forecasts $78.02, which is 16.5% higher than ICE’s forward price of $66.98. By August 2026, the difference grows further, with Commodia anticipating $81.03—22.2% higher than ICE’s $66.29. Looking ahead to August 2027, Commodia projects $88.05, which is 33.6% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.92.
🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price
In August 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude at $70.14, which is 4.7% higher than NYMEX’s forward price of $67.00. By November 2025, Commodia expects $71.21, or 7.8% higher than NYMEX’s $66.08.
In February 2026, the forecast reaches $72.65, 13.7% above NYMEX’s $63.89. This divergence continues to widen, with Commodia projecting $75.66 in August 2026—20.3% higher than NYMEX’s $62.88. By August 2027, Commodia anticipates $81.75, marking a substantial 31.2% increase over NYMEX’s $62.31.
🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month
The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from July is an improvement in Global Economic Conditions, which has put upward pressure on our oil price forecasts.
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:
Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to July 2025.
For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research
References
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.
BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.
Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.
⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!
📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.
🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!
All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.
Commodia Team