Forecast Update - April 2025
Update of Brent and WTI forecasts.
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At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.
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🛢️Oil Market - March 2025 Summary
In March 2025, oil prices rebounded after early declines, driven by shifting OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical tensions, and revised global demand forecasts. Brent ended the month at $77.23 per barrel, while WTI settled at $71.87. Market volatility was further fueled by U.S. trade policy shifts and concerns over a growing supply surplus.
🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price
In April 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $71.74 per barrel, which is 0.1% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.65 per barrel. By July 2025, Commodia projects $72.82 per barrel, approximately 0.7% higher than ICE's $72.34.
By October 2025, Commodia forecasts a more significant gap, with $73.74 per barrel, which is 4.6% higher than ICE's $70.51. In April 2026, Commodia anticipates $76.21 per barrel, 10.9% higher than ICE's $68.74.Looking further ahead to April 2027, Commodia projects $80.05 per barrel, which is 18.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $67.59.
🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI
📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price
In April 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $67.55 per barrel, which is 4.0% lower than NYMEX's forward price of $70.38. By July 2025, Commodia projects $67.47 per barrel, still 1.4% lower than NYMEX's $68.41.
By October 2025, the trend reverses, with Commodia forecasting $68.36 per barrel, which is 1.6% higher than NYMEX's $67.28. In April 2026, Commodia's forecast increases to $70.26, 7.8% higher than NYMEX's $65.20. Looking ahead to April 2027, Commodia projects $74.05 per barrel, which is 16.3% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $63.65.
🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month
The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from February is due to the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (8.01% decline in WTI and 5.90% in Brent).
The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from March is the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (4.29% decline in WTI and 2.67% in Brent).
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:
Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.
The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to March 2025.
For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research
References
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.
BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.
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Commodia Team