At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

Dear readers,

After having published this newsletter for over a year now, we are taking a short break to enrich our forecasting model further.

Our goal is to strengthen what we’ve built so far and make our analyses even more robust and insightful for everyone following the commodity markets.

During this time, we’ll be working behind the scenes to:

• enhance our econometric methodology,

• enhance the clarity and depth of our reports

• prepare the next stage of Commodia, more structured and continuous.

We’ll be back early next year with a revamped version of Commodia and an even more ambitious vision.

Thank you for your trust, feedback, and support throughout this pilot phase — they’ve been invaluable in shaping what comes next.

Follow our LinkedIn page to stay updated.

Warm regards,

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - September 2025 Summary

In September 2025, oil prices experienced a rebound driven by supply constraints and geopolitical developments. Brent crude rose to around $69.55 per barrel amid expectations of sanctions impacting Russian fuel exports. U.S. WTI also climbed to about $65.20 per barrel, buoyed by news of unexpected draws in U.S. crude inventories and tightening global supply.

The market remained sensitive to OPEC+ output plans and regional developments—resumed exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan and signals of increased output dampened price gains by month’s end.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In October 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $67.50 per barrel, which is 3.8% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.05. By January 2026, Commodia projects $69.56, significantly 7.1% higher than ICE’s $64.97.

In April 2026, the gap widens further, with Commodia forecasting $71.13, which is 9.9% higher than ICE’s $64.71. By October 2026, Commodia expects $73.14, a difference of 12.6% compared to ICE’s $64.97. Looking ahead to October 2027, the divergence peaks as Commodia projects $78.08, which is 19.6% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.27.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In October 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $63.98 per barrel, which is 3.3% higher than NYMEX’s forward price of $61.94. By January 2026, the divergence widens, with Commodia projecting $65.61, 7.3% higherthan NYMEX’s $61.17.

In April 2026, Commodia forecasts $67.05, which is 9.3% higher than NYMEX’s $61.37. By October 2026, the difference grows further, as Commodia expects $69.02, 13.6% above NYMEX’s $60.73. Looking ahead to October 2027, the divergence peaks: Commodia projects $73.95, while NYMEX remains at $61.76, a gap of 19.8%.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from September is a decline in global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to September 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - July 2025 Summary

In August 2025, the oil market remained volatile, with prices reflecting a tug-of-war between strong supplies and persistent geopolitical concerns. Brent crude hovered near $67–68 per barrel, while WTI stayed around $63 per barrel, both impacted by a renewed U.S. tariff on Indian oil imports and elevated uncertainty amid the Ukraine war.

A significant factor contributing to price pressure was an unexpected 2.4-million-barrel weekly draw in U.S. crude inventories, signaling tightening domestic supply amid rising fuel demand. At the same time, OPEC+ ramped up production, adding 548,000 barrels per day in August, a pronounced escalation from previous months that fueled oversupply concerns globally

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In September 2025, the forecasts from Commodia and ICE are nearly identical, with Commodia projecting Brent crude at $67.14, just 0.13% above ICE’s $67.05. By December 2025, however, Commodia forecasts a slightly lower price than ICE, with a 0.63% gap.

From March 2026 onwards, Commodia becomes notably more bullish than ICE. The difference widens to 4.5% in March 2026, further expanding to nearly 8% by September 2026, and peaking at an 18.2% divergence in September 2027, when Commodia forecasts $77.95 per barrel versus ICE’s $65.99.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In September 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI at $64.14, just 0.2% above NYMEX’s estimate of $64.01, indicating close alignment between the two benchmarks. However, by December 2025, a notable divergence emerges, with Commodia projecting $66.08, while NYMEX forecasts a lower $62.70, a gap of 5.4%.

The spread continues to widen in March 2026, when Commodia expects $69.06 per barrel—10.8% higher than NYMEX’s $62.33. This divergence persists through the medium term: by September 2026, Commodia projects $71.04, compared to NYMEX’s $62.04—a gap of 14.5%. The difference peaks in September 2027, when Commodia expects $76.58, while NYMEX remains at $62.13, representing a 23.3% divergence.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from August is a small increase in OECD petroleum inventories, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to August 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - July 2025 Summary

Oil trading in July 2025 was influenced by mounting supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, keeping Brent crudearound $70 per barrel, down from earlier in the year. WTI futures largely moved sideways, confined to a range between $60–$70 per barrel, amid investor caution

Despite a rebound from June’s lows—when Brent briefly spiked to about $80/bbl amid Iran-related Strait of Hormuz fears—prices stabilized as tensions eased and risk premiums declined. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continued increasing production, such as the July 411,000 bpd output boost and an additional 548,000 bpd expected in August and September, contributing to a build-up in inventories.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In August 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $74.03 per barrel, which is 2.0% higher than ICE’s forward price of $72.56. By November 2025, the gap widens significantly, with Commodia projecting $75.76—10.5% higherthan ICE’s $68.58.

In February 2026, Commodia forecasts $78.02, which is 16.5% higher than ICE’s forward price of $66.98. By August 2026, the difference grows further, with Commodia anticipating $81.03—22.2% higher than ICE’s $66.29. Looking ahead to August 2027, Commodia projects $88.05, which is 33.6% higher than ICE’s forward price of $65.92.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In August 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude at $70.14, which is 4.7% higher than NYMEX’s forward price of $67.00. By November 2025, Commodia expects $71.21, or 7.8% higher than NYMEX’s $66.08.

In February 2026, the forecast reaches $72.65, 13.7% above NYMEX’s $63.89. This divergence continues to widen, with Commodia projecting $75.66 in August 2026—20.3% higher than NYMEX’s $62.88. By August 2027, Commodia anticipates $81.75, marking a substantial 31.2% increase over NYMEX’s $62.31.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from July is an improvement in Global Economic Conditions, which has put upward pressure on our oil price forecasts.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to July 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - June 2025 Summary

In June 2025, global oil prices experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics. Early in the month, prices surged following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with Brent reaching approximately $74.23 and WTI climbing to $77.62. However, as tensions eased and the risk premium diminished, prices retreated by month's end.

Concurrently, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, contributing to a well-supplied market. Despite strong demand growth in Asia, particularly from China and India, the global oil market remained under pressure due to ample supply and subdued demand from European refineries.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In July 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $74.66 per barrel, which is 8.1% higher than ICE’s forward priceof $69.05. By October 2025, the gap widens further, with Commodia projecting $74.80—12.8% higher than ICE’s $66.33.

In January 2026, Commodia forecasts $76.78 per barrel, which is 18.3% higher than ICE’s forward price of $64.91. By July 2026, Commodia anticipates $78.60, 21.4% higher than ICE’s $64.75. Looking ahead to July 2027, Commodiaprojects $83.85 per barrel, which is 27.5% higher than ICE’s $65.76.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In July 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $70.65 per barrel, which is 7.6% higher than NYMEX’s forward price of $65.65. By October 2025, the gap increases slightly, with Commodia projecting $70.45, which is 9.4% higherthan NYMEX’s $64.40.

In January 2026, Commodia forecasts $72.59 per barrel, 15.8% higher than NYMEX’s $62.68. By July 2026, Commodia expects $75.22, which is 21.0% higher than NYMEX’s $62.18. Looking ahead to July 2027, Commodiaprojects $80.49, a substantial 29.5% premium over NYMEX’s forward price of $62.15.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from June is an improvement in Global Economic Conditions, which has put upward pressure on our oil price forecasts (13.37% increase in WTI and 10.58% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to June 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - May 2025 Summary

In May 2025, global oil prices continued their downward trend, with Brent crude averaging approximately $64.45 per barrel and WTI around $61.03 per barrel. This decline was primarily driven by OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increases, adding 411,000 barrels per day for June, effectively advancing supply levels previously scheduled for later in the year. The surge in supply, coupled with economic uncertainties and the global transition to greener fuels, exerted downward pressure on U.S. crude exports and prices.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In June 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $63.99 per barrel, virtually equal to ICE’s forward price of $64.01. By September 2025, Commodia projects $65.25, just 0.1% lower than ICE’s $65.33.

By December 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $67.30, which is 4.0% higher than ICE’s $64.72. In June 2026, the gap widens as Commodia anticipates $69.83 per barrel, 7.5% higher than ICE’s $64.94. Looking further ahead to June 2027, Commodia projects $75.83, which is 14.7% higher than ICE’s forward price of $66.10.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In June 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $61.61 per barrel, which is 0.6% lower than NYMEX's forward price of $62.00. By September 2025, Commodia projects $62.35, 1.4% higher than NYMEX’s $61.51.

By December 2025, the gap widens, with Commodia forecasting $63.65, which is 5.4% higher than NYMEX’s $60.38. In June 2026, Commodia expects $65.60, which is 8.4% higher than NYMEX’s $60.51. Looking ahead to June 2027, Commodia projects a sharp increase to $71.00, which is 15.5% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $61.48.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from May is a small increase in OECD petroleum inventories, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (1.35% decline in WTI and 5.12% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2022 to May 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - April 2025 Summary

In April 2025, global oil prices experienced a significant decline, with Brent crude falling approximately 18% to close the month at $63.12 per barrel, and WTI dropping nearly 19% to $58.21—the steepest monthly losses since November 2021. This downturn was driven by OPEC+'s decision to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, contributing to a total addition of 960,000 bpd for April through June, which unwinds 44% of earlier production cuts.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In May 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $68.57 per barrel, which is 4.8% higher than ICE's forward priceof $65.45. By August 2025, the gap widens significantly, with Commodia projecting $69.25 per barrel, 17.6% higherthan ICE's $58.88.

By November 2025, Commodia forecasts $70.38, which is 19.5% higher than ICE's $58.92. In May 2026, the gap grows further as Commodia expects $74.13, 23.2% higher than ICE's $60.19. Looking ahead to May 2027, Commodiaprojects a sharp increase to $79.92, which is 28.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $62.11.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In May 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $62.88 per barrel, which is 12.0% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $56.15. By August 2025, the gap narrows slightly, with Commodia projecting $63.17 per barrel, 9.9% higherthan NYMEX's $57.48.

By November 2025, Commodia forecasts $63.92, which is 12.1% higher than NYMEX's $57.00. In May 2026, the difference widens again, as Commodia expects $66.23, 14.9% higher than NYMEX's $57.66. Looking further ahead to May 2027, Commodia projects a notable increase to $71.97, which is 21.6% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $59.15.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from March is the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (2.70% decline in WTI and 0.17% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to March 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - March 2025 Summary

In March 2025, oil prices rebounded after early declines, driven by shifting OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical tensions, and revised global demand forecasts. Brent ended the month at $77.23 per barrel, while WTI settled at $71.87. Market volatility was further fueled by U.S. trade policy shifts and concerns over a growing supply surplus.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In April 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $71.74 per barrel, which is 0.1% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.65 per barrel. By July 2025, Commodia projects $72.82 per barrel, approximately 0.7% higher than ICE's $72.34.

By October 2025, Commodia forecasts a more significant gap, with $73.74 per barrel, which is 4.6% higher than ICE's $70.51. In April 2026, Commodia anticipates $76.21 per barrel, 10.9% higher than ICE's $68.74.Looking further ahead to April 2027, Commodia projects $80.05 per barrel, which is 18.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $67.59.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In April 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $67.55 per barrel, which is 4.0% lower than NYMEX's forward price of $70.38. By July 2025, Commodia projects $67.47 per barrel, still 1.4% lower than NYMEX's $68.41.

By October 2025, the trend reverses, with Commodia forecasting $68.36 per barrel, which is 1.6% higher than NYMEX's $67.28. In April 2026, Commodia's forecast increases to $70.26, 7.8% higher than NYMEX's $65.20. Looking ahead to April 2027, Commodia projects $74.05 per barrel, which is 16.3% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $63.65.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from February is due to the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (8.01% decline in WTI and 5.90% in Brent).

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from March is the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (4.29% decline in WTI and 2.67% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to March 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

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All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - February 2024 Summary

In February 2025, oil prices hit their lowest levels of the year, with Brent settling at $73.33 per barrel and WTI at $71.78 per barrel, amid global economic concerns and potential sanction relief for Russia. Asia's crude imports declined, particularly in China, while the global oil supply dropped by 950,000 bpd due to weather disruptions and output declines in Nigeria and Libya. The U.S. tightened sanctions on Venezuela, reducing its oil exports by 34%, while BP announced a shift back toward fossil fuel production. Despite these fluctuations, OPEC maintained its forecast for strong oil demand growth, projecting increases of 1.45 million bpd in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In March 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $75.08 per barrel, 2.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $73.32 per barrel. By June 2025, Commodia projects $76.30 per barrel, 5.1% higher than ICE's forward price of $72.58 per barrel.

By September 2025, Commodia anticipates $76.89 per barrel, which is 8.1% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.12 per barrel. In March 2026, Commodia's forecast rises to $78.92 per barrel, 14.3% higher than ICE's forward price of $69.06 per barrel. Looking further ahead to March 2027, Commodia forecasts a price of $82.25 per barrel, which is 21.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $67.58 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In March 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $71.78 per barrel, 0.7% higher than NYMEX's forward priceof $71.25 per barrel. By June 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $72.23 per barrel, 4.9% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $68.87 per barrel.

By September 2025, Commodia projects $72.68 per barrel, which is 8.0% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $67.34 per barrel. In March 2026, Commodia's forecast climbs to $74.51 per barrel, 14.2% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $65.23 per barrel. Looking further ahead to March 2027, Commodia forecasts a price of $77.37 per barrel, which is 21.7% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $63.56 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from February is due to the decline of global economic conditions, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (8.01% decline in WTI and 5.90% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to February 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

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📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - Jannuary 2025 Summary

In January 2025, the oil market experienced a decline in OPEC production for the second consecutive month, with Nigeria and Iran reducing output, while Libya saw a slight increase. The U.S. administration's imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports raised concerns about potential decreases in oil demand from China. In response, China announced tariffs on U.S. oil imports, further escalating trade tensions and impacting market sentiment. Additionally, the U.S. reinstated strict sanctions on Iran, aiming to curb its oil exports.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In February 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $80.88 per barrel, which is 6% higher than ICE's forward price of $76.27 per barrel. By May 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $82.08 per barrel, approximately 11.6% higherthan ICE's forward price of $73.57 per barrel.

By August 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $82.84 per barrel, which is 14.7% higher than ICE's forward priceof $72.27 per barrel. In February 2026, Commodia forecasts $84.33 per barrel, which is 19.5% higher than ICE's forward price of $70.56 per barrel. By February 2027, Commodia's forecast reaches $87.41 per barrel, 27.3% higherthan ICE's forward price of $68.69 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In February 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $77.52 per barrel, which is 2.7% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $75.50 per barrel. By May 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $79.11 per barrel, approximately 10.4% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $71.67 per barrel.

By August 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $79.22 per barrel, which is 12.7% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $70.31 per barrel. In February 2026, Commodia forecasts $81.47 per barrel, which is 20.9% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $67.41 per barrel. By February 2027, Commodia's forecast reaches $84.10 per barrel, 29.0% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $65.19 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from January is the strengthen of Global Economic Conditions, which has put upward pressure on our oil price forecasts (5.32% increase in WTI and 8.92% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to January 2025.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - December 2024 Summary

In December 2024, oil prices remained relatively stable, with Brent crude oil averaging around $73.86 per barrel, a slight decrease from November's average of $74.35 and reflecting a 4.86% decline over the past year. The market was influenced by several key factors. China's manufacturing sector continued to expand for the third consecutive month, though at a slower pace, providing support to oil prices given China's significant role as a major consumer.

On the supply side, the International Energy Agency projected that global oil production would surpass demand in 2025, creating a cautious market sentiment. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, introduced volatility due to concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, anticipation of pro-growth policies from the incoming U.S. administration, including the possibility of increased domestic oil production, added to the market's complexity.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In January 2025, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $73.90 per barrel, which is 0.3% lower than ICE's forward price of $74.10 per barrel. By April 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $74.95 per barrel, approximately 1.6% lowerthan ICE's forward price of $76.17 per barrel.

By July 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $75.95 per barrel, which is 1.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $74.87 per barrel. In January 2027, Commodia forecasts $80.25 per barrel, which is 13.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $70.59 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In January 2025, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $70.43 per barrel, which is 2.2% lower than NYMEX's forward price of $72.05 per barrel. By April 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $72.38 per barrel, approximately 0.6% lowerthan NYMEX's forward price of $72.80 per barrel.

By July 2025, Commodia projects a price of $72.69 per barrel, which is 1.5% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $71.61 per barrel. In January 2027, Commodia forecasts $76.85 per barrel, which is 15.1% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $66.75 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from November is the decline in global fuel consumption, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (1.79% decrease in WTI and 1.47% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to December 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - November Summary

In November 2024, oil prices experienced notable fluctuations driven by shifting market conditions and geopolitical developments. Brent crude prices averaged $74.38 per barrel, down slightly from October's levels, as concerns over global demand continued to weigh on the market. Early in the month, prices showed some resilience amid fears of supply disruptions linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

However, these fears eased as diplomatic efforts gained traction, leading to a decline in Brent to $71.50 per barrel by the end of November. OPEC+ maintained its production cuts, contributing to the market's mixed dynamics and continued volatility.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In December 2024, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $73.91 per barrel, which is 1.2% higher than ICE's forward price of $73.05 per barrel. By March 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $75.20 per barrel, approximately 2.6% higherthan ICE's forward price of $73.26 per barrel.

By June 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $76.47 per barrel, which is 5.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $72.55 per barrel. In December 2025, Commodia projects $77.58 per barrel, 8.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.40 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to December 2026, Commodia forecasts a price of $81.45 per barrel, which is 18.2% higher than ICE's forward price of $68.91 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In December 2024, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $69.84 per barrel, which is 0.2% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $69.72 per barrel. By March 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $72.24 per barrel, approximately 4.2% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $69.33 per barrel.

By June 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $73.18 per barrel, which is 6.5% higher than NYMEX's forward priceof $68.73 per barrel. In December 2025, Commodia projects $74.52 per barrel, 10.4% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $67.48 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to December 2026, Commodia forecasts a price of $78.25 per barrel, which is 19.4% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $65.53 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from November is the decline in global fuel consumption, which has put downward pressure on our oil price forecasts (1.6% decrease in WTI and 3.29% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to November 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - October Summary

In October 2024, oil prices fluctuated significantly due to global market dynamics and geopolitical tensions. Brent crude prices initially fell, averaging $74 per barrel in September, influenced by demand concerns and OPEC+ production adjustments. However, escalating conflicts in the Middle East pushed Brent prices up to $79 per barrel by early October.

Despite this surge, prices eased later in the month, with Brent futures dropping to $71.50 per barrel as geopolitical risks appeared to stabilize and crude supplies increased. OPEC+ also delayed an output rise, adding to the month’s price volatility.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In November 2024, Commodia forecasts Brent crude oil at $76.56 per barrel, which is 0.5% higher than ICE's forward price of $76.20 per barrel. By February 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $77.38 per barrel, approximately 3.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $74.59 per barrel.

By May 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $78.56 per barrel, which is 6.5% higher than ICE's forward price of $73.80 per barrel. In November 2025, Commodia projects $79.87 per barrel, 10.2% higher than ICE's forward price of $72.46 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to November 2026, Commodia forecasts a price of $84.22 per barrel, which is 17.3% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.82 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WT

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In November 2024, Commodia forecasts WTI crude oil at $72.67 per barrel, which is 0.6% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $72.25 per barrel. By February 2025, Commodia anticipates a price of $74.68 per barrel, approximately 5.8% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $70.56 per barrel.

By May 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $75.64 per barrel, which is 8.3% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $69.86 per barrel. In November 2025, Commodia projects $76.63 per barrel, 12.1% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $68.35 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to November 2026, Commodia forecasts a price of $79.52 per barrel, which is 18.8% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $66.89 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The main variables influencing Commodia's crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are global fuel consumption, global economic conditions, and OECD petroleum inventories. The main change in our forecast from October is the surge in global economic conditions, which has put upward pressure on our oil price forecasts (1.96% increase in WTI and 1.49% in Brent).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to September 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

ì⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - September Summary

In September 2024, oil prices experienced significant volatility, driven by a mix of economic concerns and supply dynamics. Brent crude prices dropped sharply to around $70 per barrel, a near three-year low, from a high of $82 in August. This decline was primarily fueled by weaker-than-expected demand from China, global economic headwinds, and bearish sentiment among investors. China's economic slowdown, along with slowing demand in the U.S. and other advanced economies, contributed to the decline in oil demand growth.

To counter this, OPEC+ extended its voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, initially scheduled to start unwinding in September, to the end of 2024. Despite these efforts, supply remained relatively high due to rising non-OPEC+ output, further contributing to lower prices.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

For Brent crude oil, as of October 2024, Commodia forecasts a price of $73.15 per barrel, which is approximately 0.4% lower than ICE's forward price of $73.45 per barrel. By January 2025, Commodia anticipates the price to rise to $74.25 per barrel, which is about 1.4% higher than ICE's forward price of $73.21 per barrel.

Moving into April 2025, Commodia's forecast of $75.73 per barrel is 4.2% higher than ICE's forward price of $72.68 per barrel. By October 2025, the gap widens further, with Commodia forecasting $77.53 per barrel, which is 7.5% higher than ICE's forward price of $72.15 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to October 2026, Commodia projects a notable increase to $82.60 per barrel, which is 15.6% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.45 per barrel.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WT

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

For October 2024, Commodia predicts a WTI price of $69.23 per barrel, which is approximately 0.4% lower than NYMEX's forward price of $69.54 per barrel. By January 2025, Commodia anticipates the price to be $71.03 per barrel, which is about 2.9% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $69.05 per barrel.

Moving into April 2025, Commodia's forecast of $72.03 per barrel is 5.2% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $68.48 per barrel. By October 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $73.58 per barrel, which is 8.8% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $67.64 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to October 2026, Commodia projects a price of $78.35 per barrel, which is 17.5% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $66.69 per barrel.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. Global Fuel Consumption, putting downward pressure on oil prices. The two-year ahead forecasts from Commodia show a decrease of around 3.6% for Brent and around 7.3% for WTI.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to September 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

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All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - August Summary

In August 2024, oil prices exhibited significant volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply concerns, and fluctuating demand forecasts. This rise was largely influenced by production cuts from OPEC+ nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia, who maintained reduced output to stabilize the market.

On the demand side, concerns about a potential global economic slowdown weighed on oil prices. Weaker-than-expected economic data from China, one of the world’s largest oil consumers, contributed to dampened demand projections. However, easing inflation in key economies like the U.S. and Europe provided some optimism for future oil consumption.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

Brent crude oil, as of September 2024, Commodia predicts Brent price of $78.77 per barrel, which is approximately 4.9% higher than ICE's forward price of $75.05 per barrel. By December 2024, Commodia anticipates the price to be $78.52 per barrel, which is about 3.0% higher than ICE's forward price of $76.24 per barrel.

Moving into March 2025, Commodia's forecast of $80.18 per barrel is 6.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $75.13 per barrel. By September 2025, the gap widens further, with Commodia forecasting $81.94 per barrel, which is 11.1% higher than ICE's forward price of $73.76 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to September 2026, Commodia projects a notable increase to $85.66 per barrel, which is 19.7% higher than ICE's forward price of $71.55 per barrel.

In summary, Commodia's forecasts are consistently higher than ICE's forward prices, with the percentage difference increasing over time.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

For September 2024, Commodia predicts a WTI price of $76.08 per barrel, which is approximately 3.4% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $73.55 per barrel. By December 2024, Commodia anticipates the price to be $77.14 per barrel, which is 8.1% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $71.36 per barrel.

Moving into March 2025, Commodia's forecast of $78.38 per barrel is 11.9% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $70.04 per barrel. By September 2025, Commodia's forecast rises to $80.55 per barrel, which is 16.8% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $68.92 per barrel.

Looking further ahead to September 2026, Commodia projects a price of $84.53 per barrel, which is 26.9% higher than NYMEX's forward price of $66.60 per barrel.

In summary, Commodia's forecasts are consistently higher than NYMEX's forward prices, with the percentage difference growing larger over time.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. OECD Petroleum Inventories increase, putting downward pressure on oil prices. The two-year ahead forecasts from Commodia show a decrease of around 5.9% for Brent and around 3.8% for WTI.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to September 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

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All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market - July Summary

Oil prices rebounded in July 2024 after hitting six-month lows in June. Key Factors Influencing Oil Prices:

• OPEC+ Production Cuts: The decision by OPEC+ to maintain production cuts until at least September supported oil prices.

• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical risks contributed to price increases.

• Global Demand: While concerns about slowing Chinese economic growth and decelerating oil demand existed, overall demand remained relatively strong.

• Inventory Levels: Global oil inventories rose for the fourth consecutive month in May, but this did not significantly impact prices in July.

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

📈  Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. ICE Future Price

In August 2024, Commodia forecasts a price of $85.95 per barrel, which is higher than ICE's forward price of $82.44 per barrel. This represents a difference of approximately 4.25%.

Moving to November 2024, Commodia's forecast remains stable at $86 per barrel, while ICE's forward price is lower at $78.83 per barrel. The difference between the two increases to approximately 9.1%. By February 2024, Commodia anticipates a slight increase in the price to $86.81 per barrel, compared to ICE's forward price of $75.78 per barrel, resulting in a difference of around 14.6%.

In the medium term, by August 2025, Commodia forecasts a price of $88.06 per barrel, significantly higher than ICE's forward price of $73.91 per barrel. This represents a difference of approximately 19.2%. Finally, by August 2026, Commodia's forecast increases further to $91.13 per barrel, while ICE's forward price is $75.53 per barrel, resulting in a substantial difference of about 20.7%.

Overall, Commodia's forecasts for Brent crude oil prices are consistently higher than the forward prices indicated by ICE across all time horizons.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

📈 Comparison of Commodia Forecast vs. NYMEX Future Price

In August 2024, Commodia forecasts a price of $82.31 per barrel, while the NYMEX future price is $75.29 per barrel. This results in a difference of approximately 9.3%. For November 2024, Commodia's forecast is $82.10 per barrel, compared to NYMEX's $72.55 per barrel, representing a difference of about 13.2%.

By February 2025, Commodia anticipates the price to be $83.25 per barrel, while NYMEX's future price stands at $71.11 per barrel, resulting in a difference of around 17.1%. Moving to August 2025, Commodia forecasts a price of $84.69 per barrel, significantly higher than NYMEX's $69.39 per barrel, representing a difference of approximately 22.0%. Finally, by August 2026, Commodia's forecast increases further to $87.54 per barrel, while the NYMEX future price is $67.05 per barrel, resulting in a substantial difference of about 30.6%.

Overall, Commodia's forecasts for WTI crude oil prices are consistently higher than the future prices indicated by NYMEX across all time horizons.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. There are no significant changes from our July forecast.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to August 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

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⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market May Summary

In June 2024, oil prices saw significant movements due to a combination of supply constraints and market adjustments:

1. OPEC+ Production Cuts:

   • OPEC+ extended its voluntary production cuts through the third quarter of 2024, lowering global oil inventories and putting upward pressure on prices (OPEC).

2. Price Fluctuations:

   • Brent crude oil prices averaged $82 per barrel in May 2024, down from $90 in April. Prices briefly dropped following the OPEC+ announcement but began to rise again towards the end of June (EIA Homepage) (EIA Homepage).

3. Demand and Supply Dynamics:

   • Despite economic headwinds, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024. This increase is supported by strong demand in emerging markets and a resilient U.S. economy (CAPEX).

     ---

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

Commodia predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will be an average of $81.91 for July 2024. We forecast an average value of $82.66 for October 2024 and $83.21 for January 2025. We expect an average price of $85.36 for July 2025 and $89.09 for July 2026.

📈 Comparison to ICE forecast

Our forecast is around 8.6% lower compared to the ICE Brent1  crude oil futures contract in July 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 5.2% higher one year ahead (July 2025) and 15.8% higher two years ahead (July 2026) compared to the ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

Commodia predicts that the spot price of WTI crude oil will be an average of $79.63 for July 2024. We forecast an average value of $79.01 for October 2024 and $79.42 for January 2025. We expect an average price of $81.10 for July 2025 and $83.27 for July 2026.

📈 Comparison to NYMEX forecast

Our forecast is around 4.2% Lower compared to the NYMEX WTI2 crude oil futures contract in July 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 6.4% higher one year ahead (July 2025) and 20% higher two years ahead (July 2026) compared to the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. The main changes to our oil price forecast from June 2024 to July 2024 is that Global Economic Conditions have put downward pressure on oil prices.

This has implied that the long-term forecasts for oil prices have been revised downwards (13 percent for Brent, and 20 percent for WTI two years ahead).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to May 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

References

• International Energy Agency (IEA). (2024). Oil Market Report - May 2024.

• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Short-Term Energy Outlook - May 2024.

• BNN Bloomberg. (2024). Oil Markets Look ‘Reasonably Well Supplied’ in 2024.

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market May Summary

In May 2024, the oil market is characterized by a mix of supply adjustments, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical influences. Key factors shaping the market include global economic activity, inventory levels, and production strategies of major oil-producing countries.

1. Supply and Production Trends:

   • Global Supply: Global oil supply is projected to increase by 580 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in 2024, reaching 102.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This growth is primarily driven by non-OPEC+ countries, which are expected to add 1.4 mb/d, while OPEC+ production decreases by 840 kb/d due to voluntary cuts (IEA).

   • Regional Production: Countries such as the United States, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil contribute significantly to the increase in non-OPEC+ output. However, the pace of US supply expansion is expected to decline (IEA).

2. Demand Outlook:

   • Global Demand: Oil demand is set to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2024, slightly less than previous projections, due to weaker deliveries, particularly in Europe, leading to a contraction in OECD demand. The forecast for 2025 shows a marginally higher growth rate of 1.2 mb/d (IEA).

   • Sector-Specific Demand: Demand for middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel has notably declined, especially in Europe, where a shift away from diesel vehicles and mild winter weather has reduced consumption (IEA).

3. Price Movements:

   • Brent Crude: The spot price of Brent crude oil averaged $90 per barrel in April but fell to around $83 per barrel in early May. This decline is attributed to improved macroeconomic sentiment and progress towards a truce in the Middle East, which eased concerns over supply disruptions (EIA, IEA).

   • Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic indicators. The recent sell-off in the oil market has been driven by concerns over global economic health and weaker-than-expected demand growth (IEA).

4. Inventory Levels:

   • Global Inventories: In March, global oil inventories surged by 34.6 million barrels, driven by increased oil on water. Conversely, on-land stocks fell to their lowest levels since 2016. Preliminary data suggest further stock builds in April, contributing to the current market dynamics (IEA).

5. Geopolitical Factors:

   • Middle East Tensions: Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, have added uncertainty to the market. Despite these tensions, crude oil price volatility has been relatively subdued due to significant spare production capacity (EIA).

     ---

🟧 Commodia - Forecast Update of Brent

Commodia predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will be an average of $80.72 for June 2024. We forecast an average value of $82.68 for September 2024 and $83.19 for December 2024. We expect an average price of $85.66 for June 2025 and $89.95 for June 2026.

📈 Comparison to ICE forecast

Our forecast is around 0.03% higher compared to the ICE Brent1  crude oil futures contract in June 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 10% higher one year ahead (June 2025) and 21% higher two years ahead (June 2026) compared to the ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts.

🟥 Commodia - Forecast Update of WTI

Commodia predicts that the spot price of WTI crude oil will be an average of $79.09 for June 2024. We forecast an average value of $79.24 for September 2024 and $79.72 for December 2024. We expect an average price of $81.43 for June 2025 and $83.92 for June 2026.

📈 Comparison to NYMEX forecast

Our forecast is around 2.6% higher compared to the NYMEX WTI2 crude oil futures contract in June 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 13% higher one year ahead (June 2025) and 20% higher two years ahead (June 2026) compared to the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. The main changes to our oil price forecast from May 2024 to June 2024 is that Global Economic Conditions have put downward pressure on oil prices.

This has implied that the long-term forecasts for oil prices have been revised downwards (13 percent for Brent, and 20 percent for WTI two years ahead).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to May 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market April Summary

Oil prices in April 2024, reaching their highest level since October 2023. This increase was driven by several factors, including:

• Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran.

• Concerns about tighter global oil supplies due to production cuts by OPEC+ and refinery outages in Russia.

Brent crude oil, a major benchmark, reached $90 per barrel in early April. The price remained volatile throughout the month, but ended April slightly lower than its peak.

🟧 Forecast Update of Brent

Commodia predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will be an average of $91.22 for May 2024. We forecast an average value of $93.15 for August 2024 and $93.33 for November 2024. We expect an average price of $94.35 for May 2025 and $96.15 for May 2026.

📈 Comparison to ICE forecast

Our forecast is around 6% lower compared to the ICE Brent1  crude oil futures contract in May 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 20% higher one year ahead (May 2025) and 29% higher two years ahead (May 2026) compared to the ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts.

🟥 Forecast Update of WTI

Commodia predicts that the spot price of WTI crude oil will be an average of $86.97 for May 2024. We forecast an average value of $86.79 for August 2024 and $87.27 for November 2024. We expect an average price of $88.66 for May 2025 and $89.71 for May 2026.

📈 Comparison to NYMEX forecast

Our forecast is around 10% higher compared to the NYMEX WTI2 crude oil futures contract in May 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 21% higher one year ahead (May 2025) and 29% higher two years ahead (May 2026) compared to the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. The main changes to our oil price forecast from April 2024 to May 2024 is that Global Economic Conditions have put upward pressure on oil prices.

This has implied that the long-term forecasts for oil prices have been revised upwards (5 percent for Brent, and 0.01 percent for WTI two years ahead).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to April 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

Tell us what you think — Leave your comments and thoughts on our analysis and tell us what you think will happen in the market in the coming months.

⬇️ Download it — Download the forecast you saw in this report!

⬇️ Download the Forecast ⬇️

📊 Use it — See our forecasts and compare it with most popular market index.

📊 See the chart

🌐 Share it — Share this newsletter with your team or with someone to whom it might be useful!

Share

All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com

At the beginning of each month, we will be sending you an email like this with an updated forecast of energy prices. Commodia brings together top academic economists who specialize in the analysis of global energy markets. The team has more than 20 years of experience from leading universities across the United States, Canada, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Our forecasts are based on state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to predict energy commodity prices.

Learn more about the Commodia team:👤 About us

And about our econometric model: 📑 Econometric model

You can also always check our latest forecast on the website: 📊 Forecast Chart

📥 Stay up to date on new forecast

🛢️Oil Market March Summary

Oil prices in March 2024 fluctuated but trended upwards. Here's a quick summary:

• Benchmark Brent crude oil reached $86.11 per barrel on March 25th.

• WTI crude oil, the US benchmark, was at $81.95 per barrel on the same date.

Oil prices in March 2024 saw a rise compared to previous months. This increase was influenced by several factors, including production cuts by OPEC+ and disruptions caused by attacks on Russian refineries.

🟧 Forecast Update of Brent

Commodia predicts that the spot price of Brent crude oil will be an average of $85.63 for April 2024. We forecast an average value of $87.45 for July 2024 and $88.77 for October 2024. We expect an average price of $89.47 for April 2025 and $91.68 for April 2026.

📈 Comparison to ICE forecast

Our forecast is around 0.01% lower compared to the ICE Brent1  crude oil futures contract in April 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 13% higher one year ahead (April 2025) and 22% higher two years ahead (April 2026) compared to the ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts.

🟥 Forecast Update of WTI

Commodia predicts that the spot price of WTI crude oil will be an average of $82.09 for April 2024. We forecast an average value of $83.77 for July 2024 and $84.66 for October 2024. We expect an average price of $87.12 for April 2025 and $89.84 for April 2026.

📈 Comparison to NYMEX forecast

Our forecast is 0.01% higher compared to the NYMEX WTI2 crude oil futures contract in April 2024. Our long-term forecast is about 17% higher one year ahead (April 2025) and 28% higher two years ahead (April 2026) compared to the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.

🗝 Key drivers of Commodia’s crude oil forecast from the previous month

The key variables of Commodia’s crude oil forecast (Brent and WTI) are Global Fuel Consumption, Global Economic Conditions and OECD Petroleum Inventories. The main changes to our oil price forecast from March 2024 to April 2024 is that Global Economic Conditions have put upward pressure on oil prices.

This has implied that the long-term forecasts for oil prices have been revised upwards (0.5 percent for Brent, and 5 percent for WTI two years ahead).

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure below:

Chart of Main Drivers of Global Economic Conditions from Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(4), 828-844.

The main determinants of Global Economic Conditions are shown in the figure above for the period January 2020 to March 2024.

For more details about the Global Economic Conditions index visit: https://sites.google.com/site/cjsbaumeister/research

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All opinions and estimates in Commodia Website and Newsletters are given in good faith regardless of source, and the user assumes the entire risk related to using this information. Commodia and the authors are providing this information” as is,” and the authors and Commodia disclaim all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. The authors and Commodia will not be liable for any damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this information.

Commodia Team

www.commodia.com